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Even though the bias–variance decomposition does not directly apply in reinforcement learning, a similar tradeoff can also characterize generalization. When an agent has limited information on its environment, the suboptimality of an RL algorithm can be decomposed into the sum of two terms: a term related to an asymptotic bias and a term due ...
Download as PDF; Printable version; In other projects ... the squared bias (mean error) of the fitted values and the variance of the fitted values:
In statistics, the bias of an estimator (or bias function) is the difference between this estimator's expected value and the true value of the parameter being estimated. An estimator or decision rule with zero bias is called unbiased. In statistics, "bias" is an objective property of an estimator.
This may occur either if for any unbiased estimator, there exists another with a strictly smaller variance, or if an MVU estimator exists, but its variance is strictly greater than the inverse of the Fisher information. The Cramér–Rao bound can also be used to bound the variance of biased estimators of given bias.
=, where is a lower triangular matrix obtained by a Cholesky decomposition of such that = ′, where is the covariance matrix of the errors Φ i = J A i J ′ , {\displaystyle \Phi _{i}=JA^{i}J',} where J = [ I k 0 … 0 ] , {\displaystyle J={\begin{bmatrix}\mathbf {I} _{k}&0&\dots &0\end{bmatrix}},} so that J {\displaystyle J} is a k ...
In probability theory, the law of total variance [1] or variance decomposition formula or conditional variance formulas or law of iterated variances also known as Eve's law, [2] states that if and are random variables on the same probability space, and the variance of is finite, then
If the experimental errors, , are uncorrelated, have a mean of zero and a constant variance, , the Gauss–Markov theorem states that the least-squares estimator, ^, has the minimum variance of all estimators that are linear combinations of the observations. In this sense it is the best, or optimal, estimator of the parameters.
This is known as the bias–variance tradeoff. Keeping a function simple to avoid overfitting may introduce a bias in the resulting predictions, while allowing it to be more complex leads to overfitting and a higher variance in the predictions. It is impossible to minimize both simultaneously.