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The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [69] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball and elections.He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News until May 2023. [2]
In FiveThirtyEight’s simulations of 1,000 possible outcomes, Trump wins in just more than 500 of them, a bit ahead of Harris. Pollster Nate Silver has Trump just ahead in likelihood of winning ...
To compare our model with others, we output the probability each candidate will win in each state. Download our TSV files for state-by-state averages and state-by-state curves. 2. Likely Vote Counts. Finally, we simulate a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using the state-by-state averages. In each simulation, we generate a result for each state ...
In 2016, FiveThirtyEight’s model clearly put Hillary Clinton as probabilistically the favorite over Trump. “All the good forecasters out there have it right around 50 percent, give or take a ...
Win Nov 3, 2020 [11] ABC News Nov 2, 2020 [12] NPR Oct 30, 2020 [13] NBC News Oct 27, 2020 [14] DDHQ Nov 3, 2020 [15] Five Thirty Eight [a] Nov 2, 2020 [16] Alabama 9 R+14 +27.73% R +25.46% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R Alaska 3 R+9 +14.73% R +10.06% R ...
FiveThirtyEight’s approval poll show a 50% disapproval rating for the vice president. ... For example, Trump shares are trading at 72 cents, denoting a 72% chance he will win.
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.