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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
The Keys to the White House is a system that uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election. [2] The system and Lichtman's predictions based on it have received extensive media coverage. [3] [4] Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcomes of many ...
Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of 11 presidential elections since 1984. His first blemish came when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election.
October 31–November 2, 2008 47.5%: 43% 4.5 Not reported Not reported Gallup (Daily Tracking Model II) [9] October 31 – November 2, 2008 53%: 42% 11 2,458 LV ±2% CNN/Opinion Research Corporation [10] October 30 – November 1, 2008 53%: 46% 7 714 LV ±3.5% Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [11] October 30–November ...
The 2008 election showed huge increases in Internet use. Another study done after the election gave a lot of insight on young voters. Thirty-seven percent of Americans ages 18–24 got election news from social networking sites. Almost a quarter of Americans saw something about the election in an online video. [131]
After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results.
Historian Allan Lichtman has insisted that he stands by his prediction about who will win the 2024 presidential race despite recent polls – and revealed that he has “never experienced” so ...
Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News/Public Opinion Strategies/RBI Strategies [148] October 21–23 52%: 40% 12 500 LV ±4.4% Poll Position/InsiderAdvantage [149] October 20 51%: 46% 5 576 LV ±4% Zogby Interactive [150] October 17–20 48.2%: 47.9% 0.3 951 LV ±3.2% Fox News/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [151] October 19 51%: 46% 5 1,000 ...