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Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on CMIP6 multi-model mean changes. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report defines global mean surface temperature (GMST) as the "estimated global average of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice, and sea surface temperature (SST) over ice-free ocean regions, with changes normally expressed as departures from a ...
From January to September, the global mean temperature was 1.40 °C higher than the pre-industrial average (1850–1900). [18] January 2023 was the seventh warmest on record – 0.25 °C warmer than the normal but 0.33 °C cooler than January 2020. [19] In July, the global average temperature was 17.32 °C (63.17 °F). [20]
The "border" temperature between red and blue stripes was chosen as the average of the highest and lowest temperature values (not as an average of a date range as is customary in warming stripes). Data for Version 1 is through 2023, updated over the data shown in the 2019 Related File linked below.
17 May: the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update projected that the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is 66%, though it is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed 1.5 °C. [123]
Original source page, titled "Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2020" Visualizations by Lori Perkins, includes the descriptions: This color-coded map in Robinson projection displays a progression of changing global surface temperature anomalies. Normal temperatures are the average over the 30 year baseline period 1951-1980.
There is good agreement on the overall evolution of global temperatures and year-to-year variability. Dataset anomalies are calculated relative to a 1981 to 2010 baseline and offset by 0.69°C, which is the best estimate difference for that period from the 1850-1900 average given in the IPCC sixth assessment report."
IPCC anomaly is 1.09 C average from 2011 to 2020 as per IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM pp5 A.1.2, so NASA data is offset to that number. Data does not go back to 1850 as datasets differ from 1850 to 1880 for NOAA, others (NASA starts in 1880, and all tend to agree from that point forward). 20-year LOWESS smooth matched to 20 year moving average as per IPCC ...
The temperature on land rose by 1.59 °C while over the ocean it rose by 0.88 °C. [3] In 2020 the temperature was 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial era. [4] In September 2023 the temperature was 1.75 °C above pre-industrial level and during the entire year of 2023 is expected to be 1.4 °C above it. [5]
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