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A hidden Markov model is a Markov chain for which the state is only partially observable or noisily observable. In other words, observations are related to the state of the system, but they are typically insufficient to precisely determine the state.
Figure 1. Probabilistic parameters of a hidden Markov model (example) X — states y — possible observations a — state transition probabilities b — output probabilities. In its discrete form, a hidden Markov process can be visualized as a generalization of the urn problem with replacement (where each item from the urn is returned to the original urn before the next step). [7]
D. G. Champernowne built a Markov chain model of the distribution of income in 1953. [93] Herbert A. Simon and co-author Charles Bonini used a Markov chain model to derive a stationary Yule distribution of firm sizes. [94] Louis Bachelier was the first to observe that stock prices followed a random walk. [95]
The main difference with a hidden Markov model is that neighborhood is not defined in 1 dimension but within a network, i.e. is allowed to have more than the two neighbors that it would have in a Markov chain. The model is formulated in such a way that given , are independent (conditional independence of the observable variables given the ...
The term Markov assumption is used to describe a model where the Markov property is assumed to hold, such as a hidden Markov model. A Markov random field extends this property to two or more dimensions or to random variables defined for an interconnected network of items. [1] An example of a model for such a field is the Ising model. A discrete ...
The process is Markovian only at the specified jump instants, justifying the name semi-Markov. [1] [2] [3] (See also: hidden semi-Markov model.) A semi-Markov process (defined in the above bullet point) in which all the holding times are exponentially distributed is called a continuous-time Markov chain. In other words, if the inter-arrival ...
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