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Specifically, stocks with steeper implied volatility smiles (i.e., higher jump risk) have higher expected returns, consistent with the equity premium puzzle. The author argues that this relationship between the slope of the implied volatility smile and stock returns can be explained by investors' preference for jump risk.
The volatility is the degree of its price fluctuations. A share which fluctuates 5% on either side on daily basis has more volatility than stable blue chip shares whose fluctuation is more benign at 2–3%. Volatility affects calls and puts alike. Higher volatility increases the option premium because of the greater risk it brings to the seller.
Nicholas Barberis and Wei Xiong have depicted the disposition impact as the trade of individual investors are one of the most important realities. The influence, they note, has been recorded in all the broad individual investor trading activity databases available and has been linked to significant pricing phenomena such as post-earnings announcement drift and momentum at the stock level.
If the market expects a major price movement in the stock, implied volatility will be high. This increased volatility makes the option more valuable since there’s a higher probability of the ...
For example, a lower volatility stock may have an expected (average) return of 7%, with annual volatility of 5%. Ignoring compounding effects, this would indicate returns from approximately negative 3% to positive 17% most of the time (19 times out of 20, or 95% via a two standard deviation rule).
A riskier stock will have a higher beta and will be discounted at a higher rate; less sensitive stocks will have lower betas and be discounted at a lower rate. In theory, an asset is correctly priced when its observed price is the same as its value calculated using the CAPM derived discount rate.
So investors have two big ways to win in the stock market: Buy a stock fund based on an index, such as the S&P 500, and hold it to capture the index’s long-term return. However, its return can ...
A volatility surface using coordinates a non-trivial moneyness M and time to expiry τ is called the relative volatility surface (with respect to the moneyness M). While the spot is often used by traders, the forward is preferred in theory, as it has better properties, [6] [7] thus F/K will be used in the sequel. In practice, for low interest ...