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Spot–future parity (or spot-futures parity) is a parity condition whereby, if an asset can be purchased today and held until the exercise of a futures contract, the value of the future should equal the current spot price adjusted for the cost of money, dividends, "convenience yield" and any carrying costs (such as storage).
The original base period was 1947-49, the same as the Bureau of Labor Statistics Spot Market Index. This was purposely done to facilitate easy comparison of both spot and futures indexes. The FTSE/CoreCommodity CRB Index (FTSE/CC CRB) was originally designed to provide dynamic representation of broad trends in overall commodity prices.
The forward curve is a function graph in finance that defines the prices at which a contract for future delivery or payment can be concluded today. For example, a futures contract forward curve is prices being plotted as a function of the amount of time between now and the expiry date of the futures contract (with the spot price being the price at time zero).
Both forward and spot rates tend to act as navigation tools in the diverse world of investments. Primarily, the forward rate indicates forecasted interest rates, while the spot rate provides the ...
In a state of backwardation, futures contract prices include compensation for the risk transferred from the underlying asset holder to the purchaser of the futures contract. This means the expected spot price on expiry is higher than the price of the futures contract. Backwardation very seldom arises in money commodities like gold or silver.
(+) is the expected future spot exchange rate at time t + k k is the number of periods into the future from time t. The empirical rejection of the unbiasedness hypothesis is a well-recognized puzzle among finance researchers. Empirical evidence for cointegration between the forward rate and the future spot rate is mixed.
Markets are said to be normal when futures prices are above the current spot price and far-dated futures are priced above near-dated futures. The reverse, where the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the expected spot price is known as backwardation. Similarly, markets are said to be inverted when futures prices are below ...
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