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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
The 2008 election showed huge increases in Internet use. Another study done after the election gave a lot of insight on young voters. Thirty-seven percent of Americans ages 18–24 got election news from social networking sites. Almost a quarter of Americans saw something about the election in an online video. [131]
After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results.
Using his system, Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of 11 presidential elections since 1984. His first blemish came when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election.
October 3–5, 2008 52%: 44% 8 3,000 LV ±2% CBS News [83] October 3–5, 2008 48%: 45% 3 616 LV Not reported CNN/Opinion Research Corporation [10] October 3–5, 2008 53%: 45% 8 694 LV ±3.5% Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) [84] October 1–5, 2008 48%: 45% 3 1,000 LV Not reported Diageo/The Hotline/Financial Dynamics [85] October ...
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois was the Democratic nominee, and Senator John McCain of Arizona was the Republican nominee. Incumbent President George W. Bush was ineligible for re-election per the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution, which limits a president to two terms, and incumbent Vice President Dick Cheney declined to run for the office.
However, Obama took a wide lead in the polls in Wisconsin in the final weeks before the election and many pundits and news organizations labeled the state as a safe blue state. [ 21 ] Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 13.91% margin of victory.
Polling guru Nate Silver has revealed his final prediction model for the 2024 presidential election – and has concluded the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is “literally closer ...