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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
538’s final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it’s a real nail-biter. Our model gives Harris a XXX out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Do Americans approve or disapprove of Joe Biden? In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.
An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.