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Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
99942 Apophis (provisional designation 2004 MN 4) is a near-Earth asteroid and a potentially hazardous object, 450 metres (1,480 ft) by 170 metres (560 ft) in size, [3] that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 when initial observations indicated a probability of 2.7% that it would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.
Further observations eventually allowed astronomers in 2021 to rule out the possibility of an impact when Apophis makes the close flyby to Earth in April 2029. There's also no risk during another ...
The risk of Apophis impacting Earth during its 2029 flyby even rose as high as 2.7% on the Sentry Impact Risk Table. The Torino rating and impact likelihood made Apophis one of the most ...
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024 [update] , all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors .
A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid initially projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029. Further observations ruled out an impact. "City killer ...
On December 24, 2004, 370 m (1,210 ft) asteroid 99942 Apophis was assigned a 4 on the Torino scale, the highest rating given to date, for an impact in April 2029. [19] As observations were collected over the next three days, the calculated chance of impact first increased to as high as 2.7%, [ 20 ] then fell back to zero. [ 21 ]
Astronomers use a color-coded warning system called the Torino Scale to gauge the degree of danger an asteroid or comet presents to Earth in the next 100 years. Since the scale’s creation in ...