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Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
A growing number of Republicans say they’re confident the votes in the 2024 presidential election were counted accurately in the wake of President-elect Trump’s victory in November, according ...
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
Even in 2012, which stands out as a good year for both polling and election forecasting, the polls missed election outcomes by 3.2 percentage points. At this early juncture, we can only speculate ...
Second, there are no national polls for Senate and governor, and polls of downballot races have historically been less accurate than presidential polls. Among individual states, the most accurate ...
Historical average polling approval of each presidency since 1953. Polling figures are the unweighted mean of both polling averages reported by Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight. [25] [26] [27] Figures listed for President Joe Biden are current as of January 7, 2025 and will be updated through completion of the first term of his ...
Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?
The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.