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The term backwardation, when used without the qualifier "normal", can be somewhat ambiguous. Although sometimes used as a synonym for normal backwardation (where a futures contract price is lower than the expected spot price at contract maturity), it may also refer to the situation where a futures contract price is merely lower than the current ...
Markets are said to be normal when futures prices are above the current spot price and far-dated futures are priced above near-dated futures. The reverse, where the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the expected spot price is known as backwardation. Similarly, markets are said to be inverted when futures prices are below ...
The Commission of the European Communities, in a report on agricultural commodity speculation, defined backwardation and contango in relation to spot prices: "The futures price may be either higher or lower than the spot price. When the spot price is higher than the futures price, the market is said to be in backwardation.
Futures prices tend toward backwardation The volatility of cash and the nearby futures prices rises with respect to that of the more distant futures contracts The theory of storage was originally developed and described by Holbrook Working in 1933. [ 1 ]
A convenience yield is an implied return on holding inventories. [1] [2] It is an adjustment to the cost of carry in the non-arbitrage pricing formula for forward prices in markets with trading constraints.
This market situation, where () >, is referred to as normal backwardation. Forward/futures prices converge with the spot price at maturity, as can be seen from the previous relationships by letting T go to 0 (see also basis ); then normal backwardation implies that futures prices for a certain maturity are increasing over time.
The forward curve is a function graph in finance that defines the prices at which a contract for future delivery or payment can be concluded today. For example, a futures contract forward curve is prices being plotted as a function of the amount of time between now and the expiry date of the futures contract (with the spot price being the price at time zero).
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