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Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
FiveThirtyEight is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage". [98] FiveThirtyEight earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards. [99] In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of The Week, for his work on FiveThirtyEight. [100]
Although polls and poll averages vary and are constantly changing, ... FiveThirtyEight average: Harris +2.4. 270 to Win average: Harris +2.2. Real Clear Polling average: Harris +1.5.
Election polls’ historical accuracy has been spotty at best. In a 2023 examination of hundreds of U.S. election polls dating back to 1998, FiveThirtyEight senior ... View this interactive chart ...
As the chart below shows, the states with the most accurate polls are generally also the ones that have been polled most often. Just like your childhood piano teacher taught you, practice makes ...
The latest polls from AtlasIntel, deemed the most accurate by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, found Trump leading Harris in Georgia by a mere 0.6%, with 49.6% of the vote to Harris’ 49%.
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...