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You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable ...
Another disadvantage of polls is that some Americans are just unresponsive to pollsters. ABC’s FiveThirtyEight pollsters said, “Republicans were more likely to stop responding to our survey.”
The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent of Literary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed.
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
Also, Rasmussen Reports began to use the FiveThirtyEight.com poll averages for its own tracking of the 2008 state-by-state races. [ 127 ] In 2009 through 2012, Silver appeared as a political analyst on MSNBC, [ 128 ] CNN [ 129 ] and Bloomberg Television , [ 130 ] [ 131 ] PBS , [ 132 ] NPR, [ 133 ] Democracy Now! , [ 134 ] The Charlie Rose Show ...
Just more than a week into their presidencies, Former President Joe Biden's was +21.8 and former President Barack Obama's approval rating was +46.9 points, FiveThirtyEight reported at the time.
FiveThirtyEight is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage". [99] FiveThirtyEight earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards. [100] In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of The Week, for his work on FiveThirtyEight. [101]
The latest polls from AtlasIntel, deemed the most accurate by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, found Trump leading Harris in Georgia by a mere 0.6%, with 49.6% of the vote to Harris’ 49%.
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