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FiveThirtyEight is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage". [98] FiveThirtyEight earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards. [99] In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of The Week, for his work on FiveThirtyEight. [100]
Silver, the statistician and pollster who founded FiveThirtyEight, wrote recently in the New York Times that the race is a virtual tie, but his “gut” tells him former President Donald Trump ...
“We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced.” Data journalist Nate Silver criticized FiveThirtyEight, the polling and ...
The New York Times "FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus" commenced on August 25, 2010, with the publication of "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats". [51] From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections as well as ...
In fact, it was the modal outcome in our final forecast. AAPOR's warning is more relevant today than ever. 2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump originally appeared on abcnews.go.com
The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent of Literary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed.
Ahead of the election, G. Elliott Morris, the editorial director of data analytics at ABC News, which publishes FiveThirtyEight, wrote about how either Trump or Harris could win decisively in the ...
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage