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While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight, the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the March Madness [538 50] [538 51] [42] and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process, [538 52] the B.C.S. rankings in NCAA college football, [43] the NBA, [538 53] [538 54] [538 55] and Major League ...
Often colloquially referred to as just 538, ... Silver criticized the new model used by 538 ... Why Everything You Know about the Game Is Wrong. Jonah Keri, Ed. New ...
That undershoot of 3 points follows polls in 2020 that underestimated Trump's national margin by 4 points and in 2016 that underestimated his performance by 2 points, according to 538's averages.
[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [3]
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 5, 2024. [3] The Republican Party's ticket—Donald Trump, who was the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021, and JD Vance, the junior U.S. senator from Ohio—defeated the Democratic Party's ticket—Kamala Harris, the incumbent vice president, and Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota.
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...