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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
This is the problem of induction. Suppose we want to put the hypothesis that all swans are white to the test. We come across a white swan. We cannot validly argue (or induce) from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would require a logical fallacy such as, for example, affirming the consequent. [3]
Visual snow syndrome (VSS) is an uncommon neurological condition in which the primary symptom is that affected individuals see persistent flickering white, black, transparent, or colored dots across the whole visual field. [7] [4] Other common symptoms are palinopsia, enhanced entoptic phenomena, photophobia, and tension headaches.
It’s a white swan event,” Taleb said during the interview. He believes the economic risks we currently face are obvious. After years of ultra-low interest rates in the U.S., Americans have ...
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader.The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively.
Illusory palinopsia is often worse with high stimulus intensity and contrast ratio in a dark adapted state.Multiple types of illusory palinopsia often co-exist in a patient and occur with other diffuse, persistent illusory symptoms such as halos around objects, dysmetropsia (micropsia, macropsia, pelopsia, or teleopsia), Alice in Wonderland Syndrome, visual snow, and oscillopsia.
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