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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
2.7% 4.4% Harris +5.1%: 538: through August 22, 2024 August 23, 2024 47.3%: 43.6% 4.6% ... 2% New York Times/Siena College [315] June 28 – July 2, 2024
[538 41] [34] [35] The transition took place on August 25, 2010, with the publication of Silver's first FiveThirtyEight blog article online in The New York Times. [538 42] On June 3, 2010, The New York Times and Silver announced that FiveThirtyEight had formed a partnership under which the blog would be hosted by the Times for a period of three ...
Our model calculates an implied national popular vote based on estimated turnout in each state, and today that number is closer to Harris+4.2 than Harris's 2.9-point lead in national polls.
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
A state's number of electors equals the number of representatives plus two electors for the senators the state has in the United States Congress. [ 118 ] [ 119 ] Each state is entitled to at least one representative, the remaining number of representatives per state is apportioned based on their respective populations, determined every ten ...
Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, noted that the final national polling for the 2016 election was close to the result, with Clinton winning the ...
At that time, Harris had a 2.8-percentage-point lead in our national polling average, not too different from her 2.6-point lead on Friday, Oct. 4 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Which way are key demographic ...