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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The Roman satirist Juvenal wrote in AD 82 of rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno ("a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan"). [6] He meant something whose rarity would compare with that of a black swan, or in other words, as a black swan was not thought to exist, neither did the supposed characteristics of the "rare bird" with which it was being compared.
The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said "gloomy" times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.
[7] [12] The black swan alludes to the state of Western Australia itself. [13] [14] It is native to the state, [15] [16] and lent its name to the Swan River Colony (the precursor to modern-day Western Australia). [3] It was subsequently adopted as the bird emblem of the state on 25 July 1973. [7]
The hedge fund veteran said the market will continue to see “pure euphoria” in the short term but will exit the Goldilocks zone toward the end of the year.
The ballet's lead dual roles of Odette (white swan)/Odile (black swan) represent good and evil [48] and are among the most challenging roles [49] created in Romantic classical ballet. The ballet is in the repertories [ 50 ] of ballet companies around the world.