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Michael Fish - A few hours before the Great Storm of 1987 broke, on 15 October 1987, he said during a forecast: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way.
where R 2 is the coefficient of determination and VAR err and VAR tot are the variance of the residuals and the sample variance of the dependent variable. SS err (the sum of squared predictions errors, equivalently the residual sum of squares ), SS tot (the total sum of squares ), and SS reg (the sum of squares of the regression, equivalently ...
All have the same trend, but more filtering leads to higher r 2 of fitted trend line. The least-squares fitting process produces a value, r-squared (r 2), which is 1 minus the ratio of the variance of the residuals to the variance of the dependent variable. It says what fraction of the variance of the data is explained by the fitted trend line.
What is normal in November? November high temperatures typically drop from the upper 70s to start the month down into the upper 60s by the end of the month.
This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the logarithm of the accuracy ratio (the ratio of the predicted to actual value), given by (). This approach leads to superior statistical properties and also leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.
November is the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season, but AccuWeather long-range forecasters are warning that more tropical trouble could be brewing, with one to three additional named ...
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