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  2. Martingale (probability theory) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability...

    A gambler's fortune (capital) is a martingale if all the betting games which the gambler plays are fair. The gambler is playing a game of coin flipping. Suppose X n is the gambler's fortune after n tosses of a fair coin, such that the gambler wins $1 if the coin toss outcome is heads and loses $1 if the coin toss outcome is tails. The gambler's ...

  3. Coin flipping - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_flipping

    Tossing a coin. Coin flipping, coin tossing, or heads or tails is the practice of throwing a coin in the air and checking which side is showing when it lands, in order to randomly choose between two alternatives. It is a form of sortition which inherently has two possible outcomes. The party who calls the side that is facing up when the coin ...

  4. Likelihood function - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Likelihood_function

    The parameter is the probability that a coin lands heads up ("H") when tossed. can take on any value within the range 0.0 to 1.0. For a perfectly fair coin, =. Imagine flipping a fair coin twice, and observing two heads in two tosses ("HH"). Assuming that each successive coin flip is i.i.d., then the probability of observing HH is (=) = =

  5. Stochastic drift - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_drift

    In probability theory, stochastic drift is the change of the average value of a stochastic (random) process. A related concept is the drift rate, which is the rate at which the average changes. For example, a process that counts the number of heads in a series of fair coin tosses has a drift rate of 1/2 per toss. This is in contrast to the ...

  6. Bernoulli distribution - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_distribution

    It can be used to represent a (possibly biased) coin toss where 1 and 0 would represent "heads" and "tails", respectively, and p would be the probability of the coin landing on heads (or vice versa where 1 would represent tails and p would be the probability of tails). In particular, unfair coins would have /

  7. Stochastic process - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_process

    The Bernoulli process, which can serve as a mathematical model for flipping a biased coin, is possibly the first stochastic process to have been studied. [81] The process is a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials, [ 82 ] which are named after Jacob Bernoulli who used them to study games of chance, including probability problems proposed and ...

  8. Entropy (information theory) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_(information_theory)

    The entropy of the unknown result of the next toss of the coin is maximized if the coin is fair (that is, if heads and tails both have equal probability 1/2). This is the situation of maximum uncertainty as it is most difficult to predict the outcome of the next toss; the result of each toss of the coin delivers one full bit of information.

  9. Doob decomposition theorem - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doob_decomposition_theorem

    In the theory of stochastic processes in discrete time, a part of the mathematical theory of probability, the Doob decomposition theorem gives a unique decomposition of every adapted and integrable stochastic process as the sum of a martingale and a predictable process (or "drift") starting at zero.