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The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.
The COVID-19 pandemic was first detected in the U.S. state of Georgia on March 2, 2020. The state's first death came ten days later on March 12. As of April 17, 2021, there were 868,163 confirmed cases, 60,403 hospitalizations, and 17,214 deaths. [1]
Recovery from the recession began relatively quickly, with the recession only lasting one quarter according to the NBER. As of 2022, the unemployment rate reached its pre-pandemic levels - nevertheless, in many key aspects and industries, the U.S. economy has not completely recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant contraction of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2020, followed by a steep 6.6% decline in the second quarter, suggesting the start of a recession. [369] The economy rebounded in the third quarter of 2020 with a sharp 6.9% expansion, but growth slowed down in the fourth quarter to just ...
A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job-vacancy data in addition to unemployment data.
The Sahm rule signals the early stages (onset) of a recession and generated only two false positive recession alerts since the year 1959 (there have been 11 recessions since 1950); in both instances — in 1959 and 1969 — it was just a little untimely, with the recession warning appearing a few months before a slide in the U.S. economy began ...
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It was that rise in the unemployment rate that triggered the famed Sahm Rule, which signals the likely start of a recession when the current three-month moving average in the unemployment rate ...