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These models are both developed internally and supplied by third parties. A similar approach is taken to retail default, using the term "credit score" as a euphemism for the default probability which is the true focus of the lender. Some of the popular statistical methods which have been used to model probability of default are listed below.
The bank must clearly demonstrate the choice of the discount rate to the supervisor. Important considerations in quantifying risk parameters include: PD estimates may be derived based on one or more of the following techniques - internal default experience, mapping to external data, statistical default models.
Loss given default or LGD is the share of an asset that is lost if a borrower defaults. It is a common parameter in risk models and also a parameter used in the calculation of economic capital , expected loss or regulatory capital under Basel II for a banking institution .
The key variables for (credit) risk assessment are the probability of default (PD), the loss given default (LGD) and the exposure at default (EAD).The credit conversion factor calculates the amount of a free credit line and other off-balance-sheet transactions (with the exception of derivatives) to an EAD amount [2] and is an integral part in the European banking regulation since the Basel II ...
SA-CCR calculates the exposure at default, EAD, of derivatives and "long-settlement transactions" exposed to counterparty credit risk, where EAD = α × (RC + PFE). Here, α is a "multiplier" of 1.4, acting as a buffer to ensure sufficient coverage; and:
The Merton model, [1] developed by Robert C. Merton in 1974, is a widely used "structural" credit risk model. Analysts and investors utilize the Merton model to understand how capable a company is at meeting financial obligations, servicing its debt, and weighing the general possibility that it will go into credit default.
a default occurs on the first, second, third or fourth payment date. To price the CDS we now need to assign probabilities to the five possible outcomes, then calculate the present value of the payoff for each outcome. The present value of the CDS is then simply the present value of the five payoffs multiplied by their probability of occurring.
In practice, to infer the risk-free interest rate in a particular currency, market participants often choose the yield to maturity on a risk-free bond issued by a government of the same currency whose risks of default are so low as to be negligible.