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Affective forecasting. Affective forecasting, also known as hedonic forecasting or the hedonic forecasting mechanism, is the prediction of one's affect (emotional state) in the future. [1] As a process that influences preferences, decisions, and behavior, affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists, with broad ...
Futures studies. Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics.
e. The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈdɛlfaɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. [1][2][3][4][5] Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has ...
People display retrospective impact bias when they overestimate the intensity and duration of an emotional reaction to a past event. This can lead to errors in decision making because it can lead people overestimating how an event positively or negatively impacts their wellbeing. Furthermore, people are influenced by their current emotion when ...
Planning fallacy. The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than ...
Data assimilation is a mathematical discipline that seeks to optimally combine theory (usually in the form of a numerical model) with observations. There may be a number of different goals sought – for example, to determine the optimal state estimate of a system, to determine initial conditions for a numerical forecast model, to interpolate sparse observation data using (e.g. physical ...
The theory of constructed emotion (formerly the conceptual act model of emotion [ 1 ]) is a theory in affective science proposed by Lisa Feldman Barrett to explain the experience and perception of emotion. [ 2 ][ 3 ] The theory posits that instances of emotion are constructed predictively by the brain in the moment as needed.
The Spearman–Brown prediction formula, also known as the Spearman–Brown prophecy formula, is a formula relating psychometric reliability to test length and used by psychometricians to predict the reliability of a test after changing the test length. [1] The method was published independently by Spearman (1910) and Brown (1910). [2][3]