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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. [a]
Silver's bulletin forecast vs. Lichtman's '13 Keys to the White House' Silver's final 2024 presidential election forecast had Harris as the winner by a razor-thin margin after she won 40,012 of ...
This article demonstrates that the Keys model remains valid despite the turmoil of Trump’s felony convictions, Biden’s withdrawal from the election, and the nomination of a woman of color. It provides the rationale for predicting that Trump will fail to regain the White House in 2024 and Kamala Harris will become the next American president.
Here are the keys that count against the White House party and obviously favor Trump. The mandate key because Democrats lost US House seats in 2022. Incumbency, it's an open seat.
Lichtman is best known for the election forecasting system presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. He has correctly predicted nine of the eleven presidential elections held since 1984 by using his keys.
What are the 13 keys? The keys include whether: The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections. The sitting president is running for reelection. The White House...
Lichtman says that keys 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 13 are true this year: just enough to assure a Harris victory. Although some of the keys sound extremely subjective, Lichtman insists that...