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The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.
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The fundamental prevalence-independent statistics are sensitivity and specificity.. Sensitivity or True Positive Rate (TPR), also known as recall, is the proportion of people that tested positive and are positive (True Positive, TP) of all the people that actually are positive (Condition Positive, CP = TP + FN).
Understanding Net Present Value (NPV) The net present value uses the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows to estimate the profitability of an investment or project ...
Imagine a study evaluating a test that screens people for a disease. Each person taking the test either has or does not have the disease. The test outcome can be positive (classifying the person as having the disease) or negative (classifying the person as not having the disease).
In clinical practice, post-test probabilities are often just estimated or even guessed. This is usually acceptable in the finding of a pathognomonic sign or symptom, in which case it is almost certain that the target condition is present; or in the absence of finding a sine qua non sign or symptom, in which case it is almost certain that the target condition is absent.
Pre-test probability: For example, if about 2 out of every 5 patients with abdominal distension have ascites, then the pretest probability is 40%. Likelihood Ratio: An example "test" is that the physical exam finding of bulging flanks has a positive likelihood ratio of 2.0 for ascites.
PPV is best understood by comparison to two other approaches where a penalty is applied for risk: The risk-adjusted rate of return applies a risk-penalty by increasing the discount rate when calculating the Net Present Value (NPV); The certainty equivalent approach does this by adjusting the cash-flow numerators of the NPV formula.