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Overconfidence effect, a tendency to have excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. [5] [43] [44] [45] Planning fallacy, the tendency for people to underestimate the time it will take them to complete a ...
The original work on telescoping is usually attributed to a 1964 article by Neter and Joseph Waksberg in the Journal of the American Statistical Association. [4] The term telescoping comes from the idea that time seems to shrink toward the present in the way that the distance to objects seems to shrink when they are viewed through a telescope.
The bias may also result, at least in part, from non-social stimulus-reward associations. [4] Maintenance of this cognitive bias may be related to the tendency to make decisions with relatively little information. [5] When faced with uncertainty and a limited sample from which to make decisions, people often "project" themselves onto the situation.
For example, confirmation bias produces systematic errors in scientific research based on inductive reasoning (the gradual accumulation of supportive evidence). Similarly, a police detective may identify a suspect early in an investigation, but then may only seek confirming rather than disconfirming evidence.
While the latter has been found to be more prevalent in individualistic cultures than collectivistic cultures, correspondence bias occurs across cultures, [46] [47] [48] suggesting differences between the two phrases. Further, disposition correspondent inferences made to explain the behavior of nonhuman actors (e.g., robots) do not necessarily ...
Many researchers have attempted to identify the psychological process which creates the availability heuristic. Tversky and Kahneman argue that the number of examples recalled from memory is used to infer the frequency with which such instances occur. In an experiment to test this explanation, participants listened to lists of names containing ei
Hindsight bias is more likely to occur when the outcome of an event is negative rather than positive. [14] This is a phenomenon consistent with the general tendency for people to pay more attention to negative outcomes of events than positive outcomes.
For example, in their 2009 meta-analysis of Selective Exposure Theory, Hart et al. reported that "A 2004 survey by The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press (2006) found that Republicans are about 1.5 times more likely to report watching Fox News regularly than are Democrats (34% for Republicans and 20% of Democrats).