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The mode of a sample is the element that occurs most often in the collection. For example, the mode of the sample [1, 3, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 12, 12, 17] is 6. Given the list of data [1, 1, 2, 4, 4] its mode is not unique. A dataset, in such a case, is said to be bimodal, while a set with more than two modes may be described as multimodal.
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Thus detrending does not solve the estimation problem. In order to still use the Box–Jenkins approach, one could difference the series and then estimate models such as ARIMA, given that many commonly used time series (e.g. in economics) appear to be stationary in first differences. Forecasts from such a model will still reflect cycles and ...
The MSE either assesses the quality of a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable), or of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to an estimate of a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled).
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