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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
A black swan event, as analyzed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is an important and inherently unpredictable event that, once occurred, is rationalized with the benefit of hindsight. Another position of the black swan theory is that appropriate preparation for these events is frequently hindered by the pretense of knowledge of all the risks; in other ...
"The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb says he's focused on hedging against a market collapse. He said the market is flashing parallels to prior crashes, noting that it is the most fragile in 20 years.
His hedge fund specializes in tail-risk hedging, a strategy that seeks to prevent losses from unforeseeable and unlikely economic catastrophes, also known as “black swans.”
Considering that black swan events are unpredictable, getting a better and more thorough understanding of what is going on in the world can be a helpful tool in assessing what risks or catalysts ...
The dragon king concept raises many questions about how one can deal with risk. Of course, if possible, exposure to large risks should be avoided (often referred to as the "black swan approach"). However, in many developments, exposure to risk is a necessity, and a trade-off between risk and return needs to be navigated.
However, while Spitznagel does fear that a recession is coming, the stock market bubble will soon crack, and stagflation is a long-term risk, he also offered a caveat to his bearish long-term outlook.