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Although hedge funds specialising in cryptocurrency trounced other strategies in 2024, with data provider Preqin estimating a 24.5% annualised return, investors are less convinced for 2025.
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
We began by identifying five trends, and then picking three companies set to ride each of those waves in 2025. In some cases, our picks reflect the ongoing march of technology.
A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. [ 1 ]
This is to include the stake in the return. The place part of each-way bets is calculated separately from the win part; the method is identical but the odds are reduced by whatever the place factor is for the particular event (see Accumulator below for detailed example). All bets are taken as 'win' bets unless 'each-way' is specifically stated.
Recession fears for 2025 are fading fast, with market models and economist forecasts signaling a slim chance of economic contraction. ... Kalshi betting markets showed a sharp drop from over 50% ...
Even if the gambler can tolerate betting ~1,000 times their original bet, a streak of 10 losses in a row has an ~11% chance of occurring in a string of 200 plays. Such a loss streak would likely wipe out the bettor, as 10 consecutive losses using the martingale strategy means a loss of 1,023x the original bet.
In 2007, Buffett bet a million dollars that over the course of a decade, a simple S&P 500 index fund would outperform a basket of hand-picked hedge funds. He picked the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ...