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Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can place bets on various future events, including economic indicators , weather patterns, awards, as well as political and legislative outcomes.
The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race. Trump's odds of winning are at 66% there based on bets. National polls generally show the race tied.
Polymarket's site says more than $3.6 billion was spent betting on the race, though users in the US weren't legally allowed to participate. "Nothing is as salient as the presidential election ...
Four Polymarket accounts that appear to be connected have bet $30 million that Trump will win the election, according to Arkham Intelligence. ... not by a national poll conducted by the site.
Polymarket has hired polling superstar Nate Silver and is now a must-read for politicos. ... prediction markets like Polymarket are more reliable than polls because people have a financial income ...
Polymarket odds offer a useful gauge for predicting the upcoming election, but there are significant caveats. Real-time prediction markets can react faster than polls, making them a key part of ...
While polls tell you about how people responded in the recent past, the odds on sites like PredictIt and Polymarket show real-time sentiment and are better for mapping the future, according to Miller.
Polymarket declined to comment for this story, but a person familiar with the company said it was unlikely the court ruling would result in any sites offering bets in the U.S. on the presidential ...