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Similarly, business failures and stock market prices tend to be countercyclical. In finance, an asset that tends to do well while the economy as a whole is doing poorly is referred to as countercyclical, and could be for example a business or a financial instrument whose value is derived from sales of an inferior good.
In economics, a trough is a low turning point or a local minimum of a business cycle. The time evolution of many economics variables exhibits a wave-like behavior with local maxima (peaks) followed by local minima (troughs). A business cycle may be defined as the period between two consecutive peaks. [1] [2]
Unemployment has a short-run cyclical component which depends on the business cycle, and a more permanent structural component, which can be loosely thought of as the average unemployment rate in an economy over extended periods, [6] and which is often termed the natural [6] or structural [7] [5]: 167 rate of unemployment.
Real macroeconomic output can be decomposed into a trend and a cyclical part, where the variance of the cyclical series derived from the filtering technique (e.g., the band-pass filter, or the most commonly used Hodrick–Prescott filter) serves as the primary measure of departure from economic stability.
A balance sheet recession is a particular type of recession driven by the high levels of private sector debt (i.e., the credit cycle) rather than fluctuations in the business cycle. It is characterized by a change in private sector behavior towards saving (i.e., paying down debt) rather than spending, which slows the economy through a reduction ...
The US economy went into the elections with structural and cyclical tailwinds. Structural: productivity and potential growth appear to have picked up, supporting higher policy rates. Cyclical ...
Some sources argue identifying any such patterns as a "cycle" is a misnomer, because of their non-cyclical nature. [1] Economists using efficient-market hypothesis say that asset prices reflect all available information meaning that it is impossible to systematically beat the market by taking advantage of such cycles.
The economy moves in a cyclical fashion in four major stages — expansion, peak, contraction and trough. For cyclical stocks, this can mean great outperformance in times of expansion.