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In some stock markets, the October Effect also referred to as the Mark Twain effect is the phenomenon of stock returns in October being lower than in other months. [1] The reference to Mark Twain comes from a line in Mark Twain's Pudd'nhead Wilson: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks.
The stock market crash of 1929 and Black Monday in 1987 both happened in October -- and reaching even farther back in time, the Bank Panic of 1907 also started in the month of October.
As autumn leaves begin to fall, some investors might be tempted to sell stocks, spooked by the so-called "October effect." This phenomenon, rooted in historical market crashes like Black Monday in ...
The crash of the New Zealand stock market was notably long and deep, continuing its decline for an extended period after other global markets had recovered. [71] Unlike other nations, moreover, for New Zealand the effects of the October 1987 crash spilled over into its real economy, contributing to a prolonged recession. [72]
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A calendar effect (or calendar anomaly) is any market anomaly, different behaviour of stock markets, or economic effect which appears to be related to the calendar, such as the day of the week, time of the month, time of the year, time within the U.S. presidential cycle, decade within the century, etc...
October has seen the end of more bear markets than any other month, making it a month for contrarian buying. However, October has been relatively stronger during midterm election years.
EMH predicts that stock market returns should not be predictably lower than the short-term interest rate (risk free rate). Popular media consider this phenomenon each May, generally rejecting it. However, the effect has been strongly present in most developed markets (including the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Japan, and most ...
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