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That is, a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = −0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = −1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be ...
The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable.
Predictive analytics, or predictive AI, encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.
The JMA has produced an 11-member ensemble forecast system for typhoons known as the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System (TEPS) since February 2008, which is run out to 132 hours into the future. It uses a lower resolution version (with larger grid spacing) of its GSM, with ten perturbed members and one non-perturbed member.
Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by Fleet Numerical. This mathematical model is run four times a day and produces weather forecasts .
In weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors.
The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by the United States Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. This mathematical model was run four times a day and produced weather forecasts.
The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS) is an international field experiment started in 2006 designed by World Climate Research Programme's core project CLIVAR to better understand physical and chemical processes central to the climate system of the Southeast Pacific region.