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The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. [1] [2] [3]
One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like ...
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019.
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
First edition (publ. Princeton University Press) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock.The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.
Chris Pratt is battling aliens, but this time, it's not Guardians of the Galaxy. The movie star's new film, The Tomorrow War, drops on Amazon Prime Video on July 2. The Tomorrow War was originally ...
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A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...