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Recession Period. Start. End. Total Time Elapsed. The Great Depression–Late ’20s and Early ’30s. August 1929. March 1933. 3 years, 7 months. The Great Recession–aka The 2008 Financial ...
The 1948 recession was a brief economic downturn; forecasters of the time expected much worse, perhaps influenced by the poor economy in their recent lifetimes. [62] The recession also followed a period of monetary tightening. [40] Recession of 1953: July 1953 – May 1954 10 months 3 years 9 months 6.1% (September 1954) −2.6%
Based on recent history, the last four recessions, as of Q2-2024, didn’t start until the inverted curve returned to a positive reading (steepens). Further analysis shows that "the average time to recession (...) [is] only 66 days from when the [3-month/10-year] curve disinverts." [111] The S&P 500 and BBB bond spread. [112]
The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.
A recession is a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth. The countries listed are those that officially announced that they were in recession. It is worth noting that some developed countries such as South Korea and Australia did not enter recession (indeed Australia contracted for the last quarter of 2008 only to grow 1% for the first half of 2009).
A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job-vacancy data in addition to unemployment data.
Though no one knew they were in it at the time, the Great Recession had a significant economic and political impact on the United States. While the recession technically lasted from December 2007 – June 2009 (the nominal GDP trough), many important economic variables did not regain pre-recession (November or Q4 2007) levels until 2011–2016.
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