Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
Organski first described power transition theory. [4]: 22 According to Organski in his textbook, World Politics (1958):An even distribution of political, economic, and military capabilities between contending groups of states is likely to increase the probability of war; peace is preserved best when there is an imbalance of national capabilities between disadvantaged and advantaged nations ...
Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEPs) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. A well-chosen WEP gives a decision maker a clear and unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Ineffective WEPs are vague or misleading about the likelihood ...
The steps-to-war framework posits an underlying and proximate cause of war. The chief underlying cause of war is the existence of a territorial dispute. Disputes over territory are less likely to be resolved than disputes over other issues, and given their salient and transcendental nature, can be expected to create hardline interest groups and ...
The philosophy of probability presents problems chiefly in matters of epistemology and the uneasy interface between mathematical concepts and ordinary language as it is used by non-mathematicians. Probability theory is an established field of study in mathematics.
However, while popular perception sometimes takes nuclear war as "the end of the world", experts assign low probability to human extinction from nuclear war. [ 86 ] [ 87 ] In 1982, Brian Martin estimated that a US–Soviet nuclear exchange might kill 400–450 million directly, mostly in the United States, Europe and Russia, and maybe several ...
In general, formulating the notion of "probability raising" within the calculus of do-operators [4] resolves the difficulties that probabilistic causation has encountered in the past half-century, [2] [5] [6] among them the infamous Simpson's paradox, and clarifies precisely what relationships exist between probabilities and causation.
In the 1960s, Thomas Schelling claimed that most conflicts was a bargaining interaction and defined the end of World War II in bargaining rather than military terms. Formal BMoWs were introduced in the 1980s. The formal models focused on the causes of war as well as the ends, and defined them as bargaining interactions as well. [7]
The theory of subjective expected utility combines two concepts: first, a personal utility function, and second, a personal probability distribution (usually based on Bayesian probability theory). This theoretical model has been known for its clear and elegant structure and is considered by some researchers to be "the most brilliant axiomatic ...