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The stability–instability paradox is an international relations theory regarding the effect of nuclear weapons and mutually assured destruction.It states that when two countries each have nuclear weapons, the probability of a direct war between them greatly decreases, but the probability of minor or indirect conflicts between them increases.
Organski first described power transition theory. [4]: 22 According to Organski in his textbook, World Politics (1958):An even distribution of political, economic, and military capabilities between contending groups of states is likely to increase the probability of war; peace is preserved best when there is an imbalance of national capabilities between disadvantaged and advantaged nations ...
Probabilistic causation is a concept in a group of philosophical theories that aim to characterize the relationship between cause and effect using the tools of probability theory. The central idea behind these theories is that causes raise the probabilities of their effects, all else being equal.
Military theory is the study of the theories which define, inform, guide and explain war and warfare. Military Theory analyses both normative behavioral phenomena and explanatory causal aspects to better understand war and how it is fought. [1] It examines war and trends in warfare beyond simply describing events in military history. [2]
Advocates of counterfactual history often respond that all statements about causality in history contain implicit counterfactual claims—for example, the claim that a certain military decision helped a country win a war presumes that if that decision had not been made, the war would have been less likely to be won, or would have been longer.
For ancient combat, between phalanxes of soldiers with spears for example, one soldier could only ever fight exactly one other soldier at a time. If each soldier kills, and is killed by, exactly one other, then the number of soldiers remaining at the end of the battle is simply the difference between the larger army and the smaller, assuming identical weapons.
In some cases, subterfuge was used. During World War II, a group of five Germans, under the command of Fritz Klingenberg, fought garrison troops and captured the entire city of Belgrade and its thousands of troops by pretending to be an entire army. [6] Certain battles also involved the use of defences or topographical features to get an advantage.
The χ 2 distribution given by Wilks' theorem converts the region's log-likelihood differences into the "confidence" that the population's "true" parameter set lies inside. The art of choosing the fixed log-likelihood difference is to make the confidence acceptably high while keeping the region acceptably small (narrow range of estimates).