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The average duration of the 11 recessions between 1945 and 2001 is 10 months, compared to 18 months for recessions between 1919 and 1945, and 22 months for recessions from 1854 to 1919. [6] Because of the great changes in the economy over the centuries, it is difficult to compare the severity of modern recessions to early recessions. [ 7 ]
Dates Duration (months) Annual Employment Growth [2] Annual GDP Growth [3] Description Oct 1945– Nov 1948 37 +5.2% +1.5%: As the United States demobilized from World War II, the decline in government spending caused a brief recession in 1945 and suppressed GDP growth for several years thereafter.
In September 2020, CNN reported: "Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% during years when Democrats controlled the White House, according to CFRA Research. That's well ahead of the 6.9% average gain under Republicans." [3] Analysis conducted by S&P Capital IQ in 2016 found similar results since 1901. [23]
“For the past 15 years, ... An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the U.S. since the 1950s. ... This means that recessions are a great time to put extra money in your savings ...
“The good news is that recessions have been getting shorter and shorter over the last 75 years. Many recessions now last less than a year, while the upturns last three years or more,” he said.
In the U.S., since 1854, when short-term interest rates have risen by 2.5 percentage points over a 24-month period, there has been a recession within three years around 69% of the time, according ...
The following articles contain lists of recessions: List of recessions in the United Kingdom; List of recessions in the United States
The long-term Treasury yield spread has been particularly effective at predicting recessions many months in advance, achieving an AUC (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve) value of 0.89 at 14 months ahead. And it is the best predictor at a horizon of 16 to 20 months ahead, when compared to other leading indicators.