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With a presidential election on the horizon, rate changes, and a potential recession looming (JP Morgan Research estimates a 45% chance by the end of 2025), gold's big draw is its safety right now ...
The fund invests in physical gold, and its performance is highly correlated to gold spot prices. 2024 YTD performance: 23.6 percent Five-year annual return: 10.8 percent
The numbers back up this stability — gold prices rose from $1,199 per ounce in 2014 (close price) to over $2,700 in 2024, showing solid long-term growth. It can be a great portfolio diversifier ...
Gold prices (US$ per troy ounce), in nominal US$ and inflation adjusted US$ from 1914 onward. Price of gold 1915–2022 Gold price history in 1960–2014 Gold price per gram between Jan 1971 and Jan 2012. The graph shows nominal price in US dollars, the price in 1971 and 2011 US dollars.
A trader has observed that the price of six-month gold futures price (F) is $1,300 per troy ounce, whereas the spot price (S) is $1,371 per troy ounce. The (not compounded) borrowing rate for a six-month loan ( r {\displaystyle r} ) is 3.5% per annum, and storage cost for gold is negligible (0%).
The discount rate was then derived by seeking the goal of a trend of 1, i.e. flat. For housing this normalization rate was 6.06% considering the data from 1940 to 2010 relative to the year 1990. Using this as a baseline rate, the normalized price curves were calculated for the other commodities.
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