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If the temperature variation from climatology is within 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), ENSO conditions are described as neutral. Neutral conditions are the transition between warm and cold phases of ENSO. Sea surface temperatures (by definition), tropical precipitation, and wind patterns are near average conditions during this phase. [41]
ENSO-neutral means the climate pattern is neither El Niño or La Niña, according to National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. “Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be ...
ENSO-neutral is the space of time when neither El Niño nor La Niña have developed. NOAA forecasts a 79% chance that El Niño will end between April and June.
In the tropical Pacific, winters with weak-to-moderate cold, or La Niña, episodes or ENSO-neutral conditions are often characterized by enhanced 30- to 60-day Madden–Julian oscillation activity. A recent example is the winter of 1996–1997, which featured heavy flooding in California and in the Pacific Northwest (estimated damage costs of ...
La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region ...
A schematic diagram of the quasi-equilibrium and La Niña phase of the southern oscillation. The Walker circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade winds which move water and air warmed by the sun towards the west.
The 2013 New South Wales bushfires occurred in a neutral ENSO year, as not all major fires occur in El Niño years. [56] By the start of spring in 2015, the Indian Ocean had started to help the El Niño, which resulted in Australia's third-driest spring on record and limited growth at the end of cropping season.
The progression from El Niño to La Niña, which is part of a broad system called the “El Niño Southern Oscillation,” or ENSO, is the result of conditions in the tropical Pacific.