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The probability of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment, or the lower portion of the distribution of returns. [8] The CAPM, however, includes both halves of a distribution in its calculation of risk. Because of this it has been argued that it is crucial to not simply rely upon the CAPM, but rather to distinguish between the ...
Downside risk (DR) is measured by target semi-deviation (the square root of target semivariance) and is termed downside deviation. It is expressed in percentages and therefore allows for rankings in the same way as standard deviation. An intuitive way to view downside risk is the annualized standard deviation of returns below the target.
The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. [1] It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally.
In financial mathematics, a deviation risk measure is a function to quantify financial risk (and not necessarily downside risk) in a different method than a general risk measure. Deviation risk measures generalize the concept of standard deviation .
Under the assumption of normality of returns, an active risk of x per cent would mean that approximately 2/3 of the portfolio's active returns (one standard deviation from the mean) can be expected to fall between +x and -x per cent of the mean excess return and about 95% of the portfolio's active returns (two standard deviations from the mean) can be expected to fall between +2x and -2x per ...
The upside-potential ratio is a measure of a return of an investment asset relative to the minimal acceptable return. The measurement allows a firm or individual to choose investments which have had relatively good upside performance, per unit of downside risk.
A normal quantile plot for a simulated set of test statistics that have been standardized to be Z-scores under the null hypothesis. The departure of the upper tail of the distribution from the expected trend along the diagonal is due to the presence of substantially more large test statistic values than would be expected if all null hypotheses were true.
While uncertainty analysis aims to describe the distribution of the output (providing its statistics, moments, pdf, cdf,...), sensitivity analysis aims to measure and quantify the impact of each input or a group of inputs on the variability of the output (by calculating the corresponding sensitivity indices). Figure 1 provides a schematic ...