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Shadowstats.com is a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States.Shadowstats primarily focuses on inflation, but also keeps track of the money supply, unemployment and GDP by utilizing methodologies abandoned by previous administrations from the Clinton era to the Great Depression.
For instance, if a loan offers a 4% nominal interest rate and inflation is 2%, the real interest rate is approximately 2%. The world of finance has a somewhat different definition.
In this analysis, the nominal rate is the stated rate, and the real interest rate is the interest after the expected losses due to inflation. Since the future inflation rate can only be estimated, the ex ante and ex post (before and after the fact) real interest rates may be different; the premium paid to actual inflation (higher or lower).
In this equation, is the target short-term nominal policy interest rate (e.g. the federal funds rate in the US, the Bank of England base rate in the UK), is the rate of inflation as measured by the GDP deflator, is the desired rate of inflation, is the assumed natural/equilibrium interest rate, [9] is the actual GDP, and ¯ is the potential ...
For example, if the inflation rate is 5%, on a one-year loan of $1,000 with an 8% nominal interest rate the real interest rate would be 8% minus 5% or 3%. The real interest rate will usually be ...
The equation is an approximation; however, the difference with the correct value is small as long as the interest rate and the inflation rate is low. The discrepancy becomes large if either the nominal interest rate or the inflation rate is high. The accurate equation can be expressed using periodic compounding as:
The Fisher equation can be used in the analysis of bonds.The real return on a bond is roughly equivalent to the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate. But if actual inflation exceeds expected inflation during the life of the bond, the bondholder's real return will suffer.
The current unemployment rate of 4.1 percent is still below the Fed’s estimates of the “natural” rate of unemployment (4.2 percent) — a level that allows for everyone who wants a job to ...