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The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts.
The Bass model has been widely used in forecasting, especially new product sales forecasting and technology forecasting. Mathematically, the basic Bass diffusion is a Riccati equation with constant coefficients equivalent to Verhulst—Pearl logistic growth. In 1969, Frank Bass published his paper on a new product growth model for consumer ...
Demand forecasting plays an important role for businesses in different industries, particularly with regard to mitigating the risks associated with particular business activities. However, demand forecasting is known to be a challenging task for businesses due to the intricacies of analysis, specifically quantitative analysis. [ 4 ]
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis.
It is a measure used to evaluate the performance of regression or forecasting models. It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3]
Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. [1] One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. [2] [3]
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Gurobi Optimizer is a prescriptive analytics platform and a decision-making technology developed by Gurobi Optimization, LLC. The Gurobi Optimizer (often referred to as simply, “Gurobi”) is a solver, since it uses mathematical optimization to calculate the answer to a problem.
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