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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis.
Mean directional accuracy (MDA), also known as mean direction accuracy, is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics. It compares the forecast direction (upward or downward) to the actual realized direction. It is defined by the following formula:
It is a measure used to evaluate the performance of regression or forecasting models. It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3]
The earliest reference to a similar formula appears to be Armstrong (1985, p. 348), ... When used in constructing forecasting models, ...
where is the actual value of the quantity being forecast, is the forecast, and is the number of different times for which the variable is forecast. Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a ...
One form of tracking signal is the ratio of the cumulative sum of forecast errors (the deviations between the estimated forecasts and the actual values) to the mean absolute deviation. [1] The formula for this tracking signal is: = ()
The Bass model has been widely used in forecasting, especially new product sales forecasting and technology forecasting. Mathematically, the basic Bass diffusion is a Riccati equation with constant coefficients equivalent to Verhulst—Pearl logistic growth. In 1969, Frank Bass published his paper on a new product growth model for consumer ...
The ENIAC main control panel at the Moore School of Electrical Engineering operated by Betty Jennings and Frances Bilas. The history of numerical weather prediction began in the 1920s through the efforts of Lewis Fry Richardson, who used procedures originally developed by Vilhelm Bjerknes [1] to produce by hand a six-hour forecast for the state of the atmosphere over two points in central ...
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