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In probability theory and statistics, the empirical probability, relative frequency, or experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of outcomes in which a specified event occurs to the total number of trials, [1] i.e. by means not of a theoretical sample space but of an actual experiment.
In probability theory, an experiment or trial (see below) is any procedure that can be infinitely repeated and has a well-defined set of possible outcomes, known as the sample space. [1] An experiment is said to be random if it has more than one possible outcome, and deterministic if it has only one.
This is the same as saying that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any number except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event {1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty.
Systematic errors in the measurement of experimental quantities leads to bias in the derived quantity, the magnitude of which is calculated using Eq(6) or Eq(7). However, there is also a more subtle form of bias that can occur even if the input, measured, quantities are unbiased; all terms after the first in Eq(14) represent this bias.
Bayesian consider the probability of a theory, whereas true frequentists can only assess the evidence's consistency with the theory. For instance, a frequentist does not claim a 95% probability that the true value of a parameter falls within a confidence interval; rather, they state that 95% of confidence intervals encompass the true value.
The use of a sequence of experiments, where the design of each may depend on the results of previous experiments, including the possible decision to stop experimenting, is within the scope of sequential analysis, a field that was pioneered [12] by Abraham Wald in the context of sequential tests of statistical hypotheses. [13]
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