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The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect [2] or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., ...
Base rates may be neglected more often when the information presented is not causal. [17] Base rates are used less if there is relevant individuating information. [18] Groups have been found to neglect base rate more than individuals do. [19] Use of base rates differs based on context. [20]
The following are forms of extension neglect: Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect, the tendency to ignore general information and focus on information only pertaining to the specific case, even when the general information is more important. [48]
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
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The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein. [1] There are many related ways in which people violate the normative rules of decision making with regard to probability including the hindsight bias, the neglect of prior base rates effect, and the gambler's fallacy. However, this bias is ...
The traditional explanation for this effect is that it is an extension of the anchoring bias, as studied by Tversky and Kahneman.The initial "anchor" is the .5 probability given when there are two choices without any other evidence, and people fail to adjust sufficiently far away.
Extension neglect [a] is a type of cognitive bias which occurs when the sample size is ignored when its determination is relevant. [1] For instance, when reading an article about a scientific study, extension neglect occurs when the reader ignores the number of people involved in the study (sample size) but still makes inferences about a population based on the sample.