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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. [1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3]
Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won? Who is currently leading in the presidential polls?
Want to know who will win the 2024 presidential election? The race is very likely to come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and ...
Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage; Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage; Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
The three-month moving average of the Misery Index between August and October has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980, with the incumbent party winning if the index ...
In September, Allan Lichtman, a historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, picked Harris as the next president of the United States and his ...
Prediction markets show very accurate forecasts of an election outcome. One example is the Iowa Electronic Markets. In a study, 964 election polls were compared with the five US presidential elections from 1988 to 2004. Berg et al. (2008) showed that the Iowa Electronic Markets topped the polls 74% of the time. [11]