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On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
It is the first time since he launched the model that Harris jumped ahead of Trump, who polls showed was handily defeating Biden in key swing states. Silver left FiveThirtyEight last summer after ...
The latest poll from HarrisX has Trump leading by +2 points, for the first time since July. ... has Harris just 1 point ahead of Trump. Harris has 49 percent of the vote and Trump 48 percent ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Kamala Harris Democratic Donald Trump Republican Others/ Undecided [a]Margin 270toWin [1]: through November 4, 2024
Harris had been leading Trump according to bookmakers for about a month before Tuesday's vice presidential debate. According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November ...
This year, thanks to her stronger standing in state polls than in national ones, our forecast thinks Harris needs to win the national popular vote by only about 2.1 points in order to be favored ...
The proportion of times Clinton wins 270 or more electoral votes is the probability she becomes president. The proportion of times Trump wins 270 or more electoral votes is the probability he becomes president. Download our TSV file for likely vote counts. Find out more about our methodology.
Harris and Trump both see the Keystone State as their path to the White House. Similarly, Senator Bob Casey, a member of a political dynasty who changed his position on abortion rights , is in a ...