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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The firm speculated on a handful of unlikely-but-plausible black swan events that could happen this year. BCA has stuck to its recession call, predicting that stocks could tank 26% in 2025.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
Nicholas stresses therefore the surprising side and unpredictability of the black swan as well as their certainty (or unavoidability). Another concept that comes close to the concept of wild cards and black swans is the tipping point of Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point, which actually is a special form of a wild card that realizes itself by ...
Nassim Taleb, who wrote the book The Black Swan, warned that markets should expect an even worse shock than the one that sank stocks after the release of DeepSeek's AI technology. Nassim Taleb ...
The hedge fund veteran said the market will continue to see “pure euphoria” in the short term but will exit the Goldilocks zone toward the end of the year.
Tail risk is then the chance of a loss occurring due to such events. These tail events are often referred to as black swan events and they can produce disastrous effects on the returns of the portfolio in a very short span of time. Fat tails suggest that the likelihood of such events is in fact greater than the one predicted by traditional ...
The federal government will have less capacity to respond, and the economy could enter a recession by the end of this year, Mark Spitznagel predicted.